LIBERTARIANS

The New York Times

June 1, 2008
The Nation
Libertarians Dream of Being the Tie-Breaker
By JULIE BOSMAN

So maybe it isn’t very “live and let live” for libertarians to assemble en masse in the hopes of exerting power. But some libertarians, feeling a little heady after their party’s national convention last weekend, are making a bold claim: this is the year their voting bloc will hold some serious sway in American politics.

“We are in the beginning of a libertarian moment,” said Nick Gillespie, editor of Reason, the libertarian monthly.

Meeting in Denver, the Libertarian Party chose as its new standard-bearer Bob Barr, the former four-term Republican congressman from Georgia who has already been branded a spoiler by Sean Hannity, the conservative commentator from Fox News.

The most well-known libertarian figure, the Republican Ron Paul, has a book at the top of the best-seller list and has raised millions on the Internet while gathering 1.1 million votes in the primaries and caucuses so far. (In the libertarian strongholds of Idaho, Washington State, Montana and North Dakota, he got more than 20 percent of the Republican vote.)

Michael Kinsley, writing in Time magazine last fall, predicted that voters with libertarian leanings are going to be “an increasingly powerful force in politics.” The auguries come even from Hollywood, where a film adaptation of the libertarian writer Ayn Rand’s novel “Atlas Shrugged” is planned for release next year starring Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt, both of whom are said to be Rand fans.

The Libertarian Party faithful expressed their hopes that if Mr. Barr can tap into the well of Ron Paul supporters, it could be their biggest election yet.

“They’re a swing vote right now,” said David Boaz, executive vice president of the Cato Institute, a libertarian research organization in Washington. “People with broadly libertarian views typically vote two-thirds to three-quarters Republican. But in 2004 and 2006, libertarian votes were moving away from the Republican Party. So they seem like they’re up for grabs.”

There are a few problems with an overabundance of libertarian confidence. Since 1972, the party has never collected more than roughly 1 percent of the vote in a national presidential election.

And some political observers have cast some doubt that Mr. Barr — who once supported the Patriot Act and strict drug laws, and helped lead the impeachment of President Clinton — could energize enough in the party to make a difference.

“I’m not sure he’s the optimal messenger,” said Charlie Cook, the political analyst.

But there is the Libertarian Party and then there is the libertarian — small-“L” — state of mind. Those who do not necessarily vote with the party but identify with some of the core libertarian philosophy — a small government with minimal reach into people’s personal lives, and minimal foreign entanglements — may be a potent, if unpredictable, group of voters.

“I think one problem the Republican Party is facing in the Mountain West is that the social, cultural and religious emphasis of Republicans in the last five, six, eight years has run against the libertarian grain,” Mr. Cook said. “When these people signed onto small government, they weren’t just talking about money. They were talking about small government, period. So when government dictates anything, whether social, cultural, religious or anything else, they take a dim view of that.”

Libertarians trace their historical roots back to the Enlightenment and views of the rights of the individual that informed the Constitution, which they say should be strictly interpreted. As might be expected from a group placing a high value on individual freedom, they are a diverse bunch, animated by different issues, whether gun rights or drug legalization or cutting taxes.

When libertarian ideas gained in popularity in the 1970s, it was in part from public discontent with big-government efforts like the Vietnam War. Lately, libertarians have focused on issues like the war in Iraq, which they oppose in common with many Democrats, and school choice, which they favor along with social conservatives.

Many view Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, with suspicion if not disdain, despite his opposition to government pork, a maverick image and roots in Arizona, home of the Republican Senator Barry Goldwater (he of “extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice”). They oppose Mr. McCain’s support both of the war and campaign finance restrictions, which they see as a curb on free speech. Meanwhile, liberal Democrat though he may be, Senator Barack Obama, Mr. McCain’s likely foe, may attract libertarians not only because of his antiwar views but because, like Mr. Paul, he has had great success organizing support via the Internet, where a libertarian spirit thrives.

Mr. Boaz of the Cato Institute said he already detected some movement to Mr. Barr. “I’ve had friends e-mail me over the last few days and say, ‘I want Barr to keep McCain out of the White House,’ ” he said. “So there definitely are some libertarians who object to McCain and want to see Barr siphon votes away from him.”

Mr. Barr is expected to attract votes in libertarian strongholds like Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico and New Hampshire. One recent poll suggested that Mr. Barr could do the most serious damage in his native Georgia, where Mr. Obama, with his wide support among black voters, could perform well, too.

According to the poll, conducted by InsiderAdvantage, 8 percent of registered voters said they would vote for Mr. Barr in a matchup against Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama in November. (Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama received 45 percent and 35 percent in the poll, respectively.)

“He could take some votes away from John McCain here,” said Merle Black, a professor of politics at Emory University in Atlanta. “But right now, I think his potential would be in the single digits. The Republicans could lose some white votes and still have enough to carry the state.”

Mr. Barr has said he hopes that Mr. Paul’s million-plus supporters will vote for him instead. And the Barr campaign is trying to tap into some of the Ron Paul Internet magic, linking to social-networking sites like Facebook and MySpace on its campaign Web site.

But without Mr. Paul on the ballot, many of his supporters may choose not to vote at all. And Mr. Paul, the Libertarian Party’s nominee in 1988, does not plan to steer his supporters to Mr. Barr, said Jesse Benton, a spokesman for Mr. Paul.

“Bob and Ron are former colleagues and they’re friends,” Mr. Benton said carefully. “But that’s where the relationship ends.”